Another set of by-elections have come and gone, and Parliament looks no different than before. It is true the Liberal Party lost their Montreal seat to Bloc Quebecois, but that did not change the balance of power. Instead, we are left with a lot of extrapolation, speculation, and consternation.
I see the biggest winner of the night as Bloc Quebecois, followed by the Conservative Party. The stunning upset in Verdun is tempered somewhat by the fact that the winning candidate secured a paltry 28% of the vote in a close, three-way race with the Liberals and NDP. The Conservative Party are winners because they surged in vote share in Transcona, and almost doubled their support in Verdun. The NDP neither won nor lost. That is hardly an endorsement of Singh’s decision to kill the Supply & Confidence deal. They did not lose because they did not cough up Transcona to the CPC, but their failure to secure Verdun away from the Bloc or the Liberals means they did not win either. The big loser of the night is obviously the Liberals that squandered a 43% victory away dropping to 27%. The Greens and the PPC both slid backwards grabbing 1% each.
What does that all mean? Bloc’s pickup from the Liberals gives Blanchet tremendous bargaining power to keep Trudeau’s government in power. So do not expect an early election at least until next spring. Unless Trudeau literally buys Quebec’s support in the next federal budget, there is a good chance Trudeau will be defeated in the budget vote. If not, the next scheduled election is fall 2025. The NDP pulling out of the Supply & Confidence deal was a great political theatre, but since Singh commands no respect in Quebec (according to the polls anyways) his threat was empty as the Bloc has nothing to lose by stepping in and a lot to gain.
Given the NDP’s underwhelming performance in the by-elections and their weakness in Quebec, the next federal election sports a chance of a super majority for the Conservatives and a Bloc official opposition. That would be something to witness… until you realize that four years after that, the Liberals will have Mark Carney as their leader and Toronto and Montreal will suddenly remember they hate conservatives and the West. Right now, Poilievre benefits from “not being Trudeau”. It remains to be seen if he can survive an election where his opponent is not one of the most hated men in Canada right now (see featured image).
What is Maverick’s place in all this? Not much has changed. We are still working to make sure we are ready for the next election. Whether it is spring or fall next year, I think it is safe to say it will not be in 2024. That is, unless something drastic happens. Regardless, Maverick will be ready. We are doing the work that is not so glamourous. It’s the hard work that must be done behind the scenes. That means recruiting and vetting potential candidates, raising money, and selling memberships.
“Selling memberships to who” you might ask. Something that slid under the radar on by-election night was the complete collapse of the PPC vote in both ridings. In Elmwood-Transcona, they slid 4% backwards to 1% and were beaten by the Green Party by 17 votes. I get it, Maverick’s vote share in our last by-election (Calgary-Heritage) was also low. The point is that Bernier’s party is not what it once was. There are more than a few PPC supporters out there looking for a new home. You have one with Maverick. Give us your trust and you will see that our party is not our leader’s retirement fund. To our Maverick members, send this article to a PPC friends of yours. See if they see things our way. There is so much more we could do together than against each other.
With Respect,
Tim Barnes
Tim is currently studying law at the University of Saskatchewan. He sits on the Maverick Board of Directors representing Saskatchewan.